Integrative taxonomy at the nexus of population divergence and speciation in insular speckled rattlesnakes

ABSTRACT

We describe two diminutive species of rattlesnakes (genus Crotalus) from small nearshore islands off the coast of Baja California in the western Gulf of California, Mexico. In order to test the hypothesis that some island populations represent cohesive species entities, we applied linear discriminant analysis and uniform validation procedures to multiple classes of intrinsic trait data. By using previously recognised species to establish a threshold for species recognition, we found that assignment of specimens to either new species was as probable as with other established rattlesnake species within the speckled rattlesnake (Crotalus mitchellii) complex. We also found that assignment of specimens from other island populations was not as probable as for the established species, and these populations are referable to C. pyrrhus. The species endemic to Piojo Island is most closely related to other island and mainland populations of C. pyrrhus whereas the species endemic to Cabeza de Caballo Island is apparently most closely related to C. angelensis, a nearby island endemic of large body size. However, patterns from both mitochondrial and nuclear phylogenies, and phenotypic variation, indicate that evolutionary trajectories of both of these species have been influenced by introgression from C. angelensis. We speculate that collective evidence based on contrasting patterns of nuclear and mitochondrial evolution supports a hybrid origin of the species from Cabeza de Caballo Island followed by exceptionally rapid mitochondrial evolution. Consistent with small body size, both species show a reduction in various scale counts relative to other species of the C. mitchellii species complex, suggesting that dwarfism is not simply a plastic response to insular conditions.

http://www.zoobank.org/urn.lsid:zoobank.org:pub:FBC8A11B-04A3-4231-85CA-3972DF5A42FF     

Exploring Systemic Problems in IS Adoption Using Critical Systems Heuristics

Systemic Practice and Action Research - Most of the traditional technology acceptance models revolve around information systems (IS)/information technology (IT) adoption at individual user level....     

Can online search data improve the forecast accuracy of pork price in China?

Online search data provide us with a new perspective for quantifying public concern about animal diseases, which can be regarded as a major external shock to price fluctuations. We propose a modeling framework for pork price forecasting that incorporates online search data with support vector regression model. This novel framework involves three main steps: that is, formulation of the animal diseases composite indexes (ADCIs) based on online search data; forecast with the original ADCIs; and forecast improvement with the decomposed ADCIs. Considering that there are some noises within the online search data, four decomposition techniques are introduced: that is, wavelet decomposition, empirical mode decomposition, ensemble empirical mode decomposition, and singular spectrum analysis. The experimental study confirms the superiority of the proposed framework, which improves both the level and directional prediction accuracy. With the SSA method, the noise within the online search data can be removed and the performance of the optimal model is further enhanced. Owing to the long-term effect of diseases outbreak on price volatility, these improvements are more prominent in the mid- and long-term forecast horizons.     

模拟结果为什么比实际更暖:简化气候模型结果（英文）

设计了一个非专业人士能够使用、最简化的气候敏感模型,用来研究人类活动所导致的全球变暖的幅度问题.在1990年的第一次IPCC评估报告中,IPCC对其报告中预测的未来全球变暖幅度很有信心,但是随后的观测结果显示全球的变暖幅度只有预测的一半.而自2001年起,全球变暖出现停滞,但是仅仅考虑到二氧化碳浓度的增加,很少有模型能够模拟出这一变化.在已出版的IPCC第五次评估报告的草稿中,IPCC大幅度削减了近期变暖的幅度,并以专家评估代替了模型预测.但是报告中关于未来气候长期变化的预测仍被保留.如果把IPCC模型的总反馈从1.9 W m–2 K–1调整到1.5 W m–2 K–1,气候敏感模型中模拟的温度将从3.2 K降至2.2 K.同时由于反馈很可能是净负反馈,更合适的估计应该是1.0 K.1.0 K是一个能够实现的增幅,21世纪的实际变暖将会小于1 K.即使燃烧所有可开采的化石燃料也不会使全球变暖的幅度超过2.2 K,这一增加幅度也将趋于平稳.本文认为解决IPCC第四、五次报告中评估方法的差异非常关键.一旦这些差异得到解决,人类活动导致的全球变暖在22世纪以及几个世纪以后的平稳态将有可能不会超过IPCC当前模型预测的1/3~1/2.     

一种互联网拓扑结构局部特征度量修正算法

对互联网拓扑结构局部特性展开研究,针对已有IP定位数据库的异构性和准确率不高造成的特征度量分析存在偏差的问题,提出了一种基于机器学习的修正算法(IPMG).以复杂网络为基础,结合网络测量数据和已有IP定位数据库中的IP地理位置信息,定义了互联网局部拓扑结构的地理度和地理介数这两种新的特征度量;分析了地理度和地理介数分布的幂律特性以及二者与IP地理位置之间的关系;运用机器学习的方法修正了不同IP定位数据库之间存在的分析有偏差的问题,并通过交叉验证和地标验证结合的方法验证了IPMG算法的有效性.实验结果表明:IPMG算法有效修正地理度和地理介数的同时提高了IP定位数据库的准确率.     

Risk reduction in a project portfolio

The positive impacts of managing projects as a portfolio are quantified by comparing the value of the integrated risk of a project portfolio and the aggregation of single project risks implemented separately. Firstly, the integrated risk is defined by proposing risky events based on set theory. Secondly, as projects interact with each other in a project portfolio, the integrated risk is evaluated by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. Finally, the integrated risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for calculating the extent of risk reduction of implementing a project portfolio and identifying the most risky project, so as to assist companies in making comprehensive decisions in the phase of portfolio selection and portfolio controlling.